Stock Market Weekly Wrap: Sensex & Nifty Rally Over 4.5% — What’s Next?

The Indian stock market just had its best weekly performance in four years! Both the Sensex and Nifty 50 jumped more than 4.5% last week, thanks to positive news both in India and globally.

What Drove the Market Rally?

The rally was powered by:

• Foreign investors returning to the market

• Hopes of progress in trade talks between the US and Japan

• Positive updates on India's monsoon forecast

• Lower retail inflation, raising hopes for future interest rate cuts

On Friday, the Sensex soared nearly 1,509 points to close at 78,553, while the Nifty 50 ended the week at 23,851. This marked four straight days of gains during a holiday-shortened week. All sectors did well, especially real estate, banking, and financials.

What to Watch Next Week

Looking ahead, several big events could impact the market:

• Quarterly results from major companies like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, HCL Tech, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, and Maruti.

• Expiry of the April derivatives contracts, which may increase market volatility.

• Global developments related to trade tariffs, which could affect investor sentiment.

Nifty's Technical Outlook

According to Ajit Mishra from Religare Broking:

• Nifty has been trading in a wide range of 21,700 to 23,800 and has now reached the top of that range.

• It's above key support levels like the 100 and 200-day moving averages.

• If the momentum continues, Nifty could rise to 24,250–24,600.

• On the downside, if the market dips, the 23,000–23,300 range may act as a safety net.

Also, the volatility index (India VIX) has dropped, suggesting that market nerves are calming.

Trading Strategy: Buy the Dips

Mishra suggests sticking with a "buy on dips" approach as long as Nifty stays above 23,000.

Sectors to watch:

• Banking

• Financials

• Auto

• Real Estate

He also advises investors to be selective in other sectors and focus on strong, fundamentally sound companies, especially during earnings season.

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only. Please consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.